Thursday, July 16, 2020

Power Rankings


     After a 4.5 month long pause, the NBA is finally set to restart and complete it's 2019-20 season in the happiest place on earth, barring any major developments in the pandemic of course. To recap, any team who was within 6 games of 8th place in their conference received an invitation to Orlando. This resulted in 22 teams travelling to the Orlando bubble and the remaining 8 abruptly ending their seasons. Therefore instead of doing a power ranking of all 30, we will do the 22 still in contention with a glossed over section briefly mentioning the 8 who will be staying home and preparing for next season.

     To recap the format of the restart: each team will play 8 regular season games to determine seeding and the 16 playoff teams with one slight exception. If the 9th place team in a conference is within 4 games of the 8th place team, there will be a small play-in tournament for 8th place. In this scenario, the #8 team just has to win once to advance, while the #9 team would need to beat the #8 team twice in a row to take their place. From there the format is the same as it always is, 4 rounds of best-of-7 series with the East on one side of the bracket and the West on the other and the winner of each conference meeting in the NBA Finals.

     As we all continue to keep our fingers tightly crossed that everything goes according to plan and that an NBA champion is eventually crowned, let's examine how these teams stack up heading into the Disney bubble. 

Tier 1: Better Luck Next Year

#23-30 in order: Golden State Warriors, Atlanta Hawks, Minnesota Timberwolves, Chicago Bulls, Detroit Pistons, Cleveland Cavaliers, Charlotte Hornets, New York Knicks

The Warriors are by far the best team on this list when healthy, but losing Steph Curry and Klay Thompson to injuries after losing Kevin Durant in the offseason left the Warriors without the bulk of their offensive production and pretty hopeless. Expect them to bounce back in 2020.

The Hawks have a potential young superstar they can build around in point guard Trae Young. The 21 year old is 3rd in the NBA in points per game with 29.6 and 2nd in the NBA in assists per game with 9.3. They've complimented him with some nice young pieces in the past few drafts as well such as John Collins, Cam Reddish, and DeAndre Hunter. Trading for Clint Capella at the trade deadline adds another solid big man to the core.

Minnesota has 2 young all-stars in big man Karl-Anthony Towns and DeAngelo Russell, but Russel was not acquired until the trade deadline when Minnesota was already too far out of playoff contention and Towns missed time earlier in the season with injuries. The Timberwolves also added Malik Beasley via trade who can be a legit 3rd scoring option. All 3 of these players are 24 or younger, and the bulk of the roster is in their low to mid 20's.

The Bulls have a decent young roster headlined by Zach LaVine who averages 25.5 ppg and center Lauri Markannen who averaged 14.7 ppg. If recent draft picks like Coby White and Wendell Carter can develop as well the Bulls will improve.

There's not much nice I can say about the Pistons, Cavs, Hornets, and Knicks. The Knicks are a poorly run franchise that continues to whiff on draft picks and finish in the bottom 5-10 teams every season. The Hornets lost all-star Kemba Walker in free agency to the Celtics last summer, which was the only thing keeping their team towards the middle of the pack. Cleveland has been irrelevant since LeBron left. Detroit has players like Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose who were once great but appear to be past their primes.


Tier 2: Most likely not making the Playoffs


#22. Washington Wizards
24-40; 9th in East

Despite being 16 games under .500, the Wizards find themselves only 5.5 games behind Brooklyn and Orlando, who hold 7th and 8th place respectively. They have one of the NBA's best scorers, Bradley Beal. Beal is currently 2nd in scoring and was red-hot in February averaging 36 points per game for the month. But unfortunately, the team has decided Beal will not travel to Orlando as he is still recovering from an injury to his right rotator cuff. With Beal sidelined, the rest of the roster leaves much to be desired and it's unlikely the Wizards will make the playoffs, let alone even force a play-in tournament. However there's optimism for next year when the Wizards will get Beal and fellow all-star John Wall back from injuries.

#21. Phoenix Suns
26-39; 13th in West

The Suns barely squeaked into Disney, finishing exactly 6 games behind Memphis for 8th in the West. Devin Booker (23 years old) is a special player who averages 27 ppg, 6 assists per game, and shoots over 50% from the field. This has only been accomplished by Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Steph Curry, Larry Bird, and Oscar Robertson, all of whom are top 25 players of all time. Like Trae Young, Booker is an excellent 3 point shooter and prolific scorer. The Suns 2nd best player is the #1 overall pick from 2 years ago, big man DeAndre Ayton. Ayton is a double-double machine who averages 19 ppg and 12 rpg, but was suspended for 25 games when the season began for violating the league's drug policy. Had Ayton been available for that stretch to take the load off of Booker, Phoenix would likely be more in contention for a playoff spot. But the odds of them gaining two games on Memphis while simultaneously leap frogging New Orleans, Portland, Sacramento, and San Antonio with only 8 games to play is just too unlikely. But they're a team to watch out for next season.

#20. San Antonio Spurs
27-36; 12th in West
 The Spurs are hanging around in the playoff race as they always do, currently 4 games behind Memphis, but don't look like a legitimate threat to make a push for the 8 seed on paper. They are bottom 5 in defense and have had key players miss time with injuries & soreness down the stretch. Most notably LaMarcus Aldridge, either their best or 2nd best player, will be out for the remainder of the season. However, the Spurs have made the playoffs 22 straight years, the longest active streak in professional sports. They also have the league's best coach, Greg Poppovich, who has won 5 championships. This is an organization used to winning and greatness and they aren't going to let that streak end without a fight. However without Aldridge this incredibly impressive streak of consecutive playoff appearances may be finally comin to an end.

Tier 3: Competing for a Playoff Birth


#19. Brooklyn Nets
30-34; 7th in East

Brooklyn's eyes were always on next season, when they will get newly acquired Kevin Durant back from the torn achilles he suffered in last year's NBA Finals. Durant is a top 5 player when healthy and a 2-time champion and Finals MVP. The Nets also acquired all-star Kyrie Irving, probably a top15-top20 player who started the season on the roster but was shut down in February to have season-ending shoulder surgery. Neither will be returning in time for the restart. Even without it's 2 studs, the Nets have a chance to make the playoffs and give its role players some invaluable playoff experience, albeit it will likely be short-lived. But when Durant and Irving return that will be enough to make Brooklyn a legitimate championship contender. For this year, the Nets priority needs to be edging out the Orlando Magic for 7th place, because this allows to avoid both the play-in tournament (if necessary), as well as a first round match up with Milwaukee.

#18. Orlando Magic
30-35; 8th in East
The East as a whole is a weaker conference than the west, and because of that the Magic and Nets are currently playoff teams despite their poor records. With the Nets' injuries piling up, the odds are in the Magic's favor to move up to 7th and thus avoid the play-in tournament and a first round date with Milwuakee. The Magic have a balanced roster and find ways to compete, but probably lack the star power to go any further than the first round of the playoffs. Offense has been a struggle for them as they play slow-paced and lack elite scorers, so when they fall behind in games it is difficult for them to recover.


#17. Sacramento Kings
28-36; T-9th in West

The Kings have not made the playoffs since 2006, but after winning 7 of their last 11 they find themselves only 4 games behind Memphis for 8th place. The Kings lack star power, but have a deep roster of B-list players who work well as a unit. Their best player is De'Aaron Fox, who averages 20 points and 7 assists and was an all-star in 2019 but spent part of 2020 injured. The Kings also get last year's #2 overall pick Marvin Bagley III back from injury. Also working in Sacramento's favor, they were gifted the 3rd easiest schedule of the 22 remaining teams. It will still be an uphill battle to secure 9th in the race against all the other Western teams but the Kings could be a sleeper.

#16. Portland Trailblazers
29-37; T-9th in West
Portland has a top 10 player and prolific scorer in Damian Lillard (29 ppg, 8 apg), and a second good scorer in CJ McCollum (23 ppg). Unfortunately the rest of the roster leaves much to be desired and hasn't helped the scoring duo much this season, although getting their duo of big men healthy again in Jursuf Nurkic and Zach Collins well help. Portland sits 3.5 games behind Memphis, in a 3 way tie with New Orleans and Sacramento for 9th and half a game ahead of San Antonio who remains in the mix as well. Of all teams in the running for 8th in the West, Lillard is the best player by a country mile and will have his opportunity to lead Portland into the playoffs. Lillard is known to be a clutch player, twice in his career he has hit a buzzer beater to win a playoff series, and he helped lead Portland all the way to the Western Conference Finals last season.


#15. New Orleans Pelicans
28-36; T-9th in West

The Pelicans may have dug themselves in a hole too deep to climb out of when they got off to an abysmal 6-22 start to their season. A damn shame because they are 20-14 since, which would have put them on pace for 48 wins and a playoff spot if they played that well from the beginning. This can largely be attributed to rookie phenom Zion Williamson being sidelined until late January with a knee injury. Williamson has taken the league by storm since returning, averaging 24 points and 7 rebounds. Brandon Ingram was also an all star (25 ppg and 6 rpg) and is only 22. Lonzo Ball, also 22, is an excellent passer and facilitator who is improving as a 3 point shooter as well. Throw in stingy veterans like Jrue Holiday (19 ppg and an elite defender), and JJ Reddick (3rd in 3-point percentage) and the slew of first round picks they own from trading Anthony Davis to the Lakers and the Pelicans are in great shape to be a playoff team, possibly more, for years to come. Personally I believe part of the reason the NBA opted for the format that they went with was to give Zion and the Pelicans a realistic chance of playing their way into the playoffs and setting up a juicy first round match up with LeBron and the Lakers, which would also mean pitting Anthony Davis against his former team. And the NBA knows this would draw much higher TV ratings than Memphis as well. The Pelicans have a deep talented roster and will make some noise in Disney.

#14. Memphis Grizzlies
32-33; 8th in West

The Grizzlies sit at an (almost) even 32-33 heading into the Disney bubble. The Grizzlies had the #2 pick in last year's draft and selected Ja Morant, who has exceeded expectations in ten-fold and is going to win rookie of the year (both because he played amazing but also because Zion missed so much time, which would otherwise make this an intriguing and debatable race). The 20 year old is a terrific athlete and passer who will be a future all-star in this league. But the Grizzlies got the short end of the stick in this new format, as they will almost assuredly have to participate in the play-in tournament as at least one of the other teams will probably remain within 4 games of them. The Grizzlies certainly would have preferred to have finished their 17 remaining games to maintain their 3.5 game lead on their competitors. Even so, the young Grizzlies exceeded expectations last year going from one of the league's worst teams to a probable playoff team, and will only get better as they grow.


Tier 4: Definitely Making the Playoffs, but little to no chance of Winning a Championship

#13. Indiana Pacers
39-26; T-5th in East
The Pacers are a good but not great basketball team that is still a piece or two away from being a championship contender. They have 2 young all stars in Victor Oladipo and Domantis Sabonis but I'm not sold either ever becomes a true superstar. The same goes for Myles Turner, Indiana's 3rd best player who is an elite shot blocker but average at best scorer and rebounder. It's unlikely the Pacers make it past the first round, let alone make a deep run.

#12. Oklahoma City Thunder
40-24; T-5th in West
One of the big surprises of the year. The Thunder were fully committed to a rebuild, they had traded former MVP Russell Westbrook and all-star Paul George for a collection that included 7 future first round picks, a young prospect with upside (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), and two experienced veterans who can still produce (Chris Paul & Danillo Galinari). The group fully expected to be a bottom 10 team without it's 2 superstars yet had the current group won half of its remaining games it would have matched last year's record. There likely isn't personnel in place to make a run beyond the 2nd round and it's more likely they lose in round 1. But the Thunder have already greatly exceeded expectations this season and were red-hot before the hiatus so the possibility exists that the trend could continue into the postseason.


Tier 5: Dark Horse Candidates
#11. Utah Jazz
41-23; 4th in West
The Jazz have the pieces in place of a team that could make a run at a championship. They have a bonafide scorer in Donavan Mitchell (25 ppg), an elite shot blocker and rebounder in Rudy Gobert (2nd in the NBA in rebounds, 4th in blocks). A smart, veteran point guard who can facilitate the offense and not turnover the basketball in Mike Conley. A solid second scoring option in Bojan Bogdonavic. A top 10 coach in Quinn Snyder. And role players who provide solid depth and the roster as a whole is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. What Utah lacks from the formula is a true superstar, which is often the difference between winning a championship, and getting close to doing so. Mitchell has potential to become that, but needs to make the jump from star to superstar. Nothing helps that argument more than playoff success.

#10. Dallas Mavericks
40-27; 7th in West
They're probably 1 year away just because their 2 cornerstones are so young but with the way the dynamic European duo is playing the Mavs can't be overlooked. 21 year old Luka Doncic is already an NBA super star. Doncic has 14 triple-doubles, the most in the league, and nearly averages one with 29 ppg, 10 rpg, and 9 apg. Doncic's sidekick, 24 year old Kristaps Porzingis, appears to finally be coming into his own again after an ACL tear sidelined him all of last season. Porzingis had a slow start to the season as he re-adjusted to the game, but from February forward Porzingis has been a machine averaging 26 ppg and 9 rpg and shoots over 50% from the field and nearly 40% from the 3-point line. These elite talents are only improving as the season progresses and will be a tough out for any playoff team who gets matched up with them (3rd and 7th place are only separated by a few games so the standings could still shuffle quite a bit). The youth and inexperience is probably their undoing this year, but this is a team that is going to improve and be in the mix for years to come.

#9. Miami Heat
41-24; 4th in East
After missing the playoffs last year, Miami returns to the postseason this year largely due to 2 reasons. 1) They went all out to acquire Jimmy Butler in free agency, an all-star wing player who can score and play great defense; and 2) because Bam Adebayo made the jump in year 3 from promising young prospect to all star. The Heat also have a deep roster that features a combination of talented veterans (Goran Dragic, Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder, Kelly Olynyk), and overachieving young players (Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Derrick Jones Jr., Tyler Herro). Miami's combination of depth, defensive prowess, and dog-mentailty, make them a dangerous team to the Eastern heavyweights. The ability for the Heat to make a deep run will largely hinge on how the younger players handle the bright lights and big moments that come with the playoffs. Growing pains should be expected but the veteran leadership can be a large asset to covering that up to an extent. This is a year where the Heat probably get bounced around the 2nd round, but if they can lure another all-star to South Beach this summer then they become a true championship contender for the first time since LeBron James and Dwayne Wade were winning titles together.

#8. Philadelphia 76ers
39-26; T-5th in East
 No team benefited more from the hiatus than Philadelphia, who was in danger of having their two best players unavailable for the playoffs due to injuries. At the time of the stoppage, Joel Embiid, one of the best big men in the NBA, was dealing with a shoulder sprain, and Ben Simmons, an all-star point guard, was dealing with a back injury. Now both have had ample time to recover and are expected to play in Orlando. In their absences, Tobias Harris and Al Horford have been good enough to keep the Sixers as a middle-seeded playoff team, along with the emergence of 2nd year player Shake Milton who had a 39 point game in the week before the pause. With the full band back together, in conjunction with the most favorable schedule in the Disney bubble (their first 6 games are against sub . 500 teams) the Sixers hit the jackpot and can compete with anyone in the East.


Tier 5: Championship Contenders, but not Heavy Favorites
#7. Denver Nuggets
43-22; 3rd in West
The Nuggets are the team that wins consistently yet no one talks about them. They only have one all-star, Nikola Jokic, who isn't the flashiest or most popular player, but is a fundamentally sound big man who can help his team as a scorer, rebounder, and passer. Behind Jokic, the Nuggets have an arsenal of  talented players that form a well-balanced scoring attack and help the team win. 6 players on the roster average double-figures in scoring and 3 others contribute between 7 and 9 ppg. The offensive balance and the defensive sturdiness make the Nuggets one of the league's most consistent teams but with only one all-star on the roster it's difficult to envision the Nuggets being able to square up with teams like the Lakers and Clippers in a 7-game series in the Western Conference Playoffs.

#6. Houston Rockets
40-24; T-5th in West;
The Rockets have the distinction of being the only team in the NBA that has 2 former MVP's on the roster. James Harden is the NBA's best scorer at 35 ppg, a full 5 points ahead of the league's 2nd highest scorer (Bradley Beal). Harden's ability to score cannot be stressed enough, he has led the league in scoring the previous 2 seasons as well and last year went on a streak of 32 games where he scored at least 30 points. Not to be outdone, Houston's other MVP is Russell Westbrook, who has averaged a triple double the past 3 seasons, something only accomplished in a single season one other time in the league's history. Behind the two superstars is a roster constructed of 3 point shooters who are ready to catch and shoot when Harden and Westbrook draw double teams or attack the rim. They do lack size and instead opt to go for a "small-ball" approach, where they sacrifice rebounding in order to have more speed and better shooters on the floor. Harden and Westbrook are 2 players who despite being amazing statistically have never experienced much playoff success. Westbrook has a large number of first round exits and Harden has never made it to the Finals. They hope joining forces will allow them to be more successful than their individual allocates.


#5. Toronto Raptors
46-18; 2nd in East
The defending champion Raptors were a team many thought would take a huge step backward after the departure of 2-time Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard to the Clippers in free agency. For the Raptors to have any chance of remaining one of the league's best teams, it would require both young players to step up and veterans to play at an extremely high level. Fortunately for Toronto that's exactly what happened. Pascal Siakam, who was the 2nd scoring option to Leonard last season, has proved he is good enough to be the top option. Kyle Lowry slid back into the #2 role and is averaging 20 ppg, 8 apg, and playing good defense. Other key members off last year's title team like Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka have stepped up their games and players like Norman Powell and OG Annunoby who had minimal roles last season have filled into bigger roles nicely. These Raptors are playing with a chip on their shoulder, they want to prove their title was no fluke and wasn't solely dependent on 1 superstar. Fueling that fire has led them to the 3rd best record in the NBA currently and motivated them to defend their title.

#4. Boston Celtics
43-21; 3rd in East
The Celtics boast an impressive roster in that they have a go-to scorer but also 3 other players who could score 25-30 points on any given night. The go-to scorer is 22 year old Jayson Tatum, who was sizzling last month when he averaged 31 ppg and almost 50% from the 3 point line. Furthermore Tatum is a great perimiter defender and solid rebounder. Tatum is widely recognized as a star and he's almost certainly going to become a superstar and top 10 player in the league provided he can maintain this level of consistency. Tatum is joined by fellow all-star Kemba Walker, a guard with elite speed and ball-handling ability who chips in with 22 ppg. The All-Star duo is further supported by Jaylen Brown (20 ppg and another great defensive player) and Gordon Hayward (17 ppg and a great perimeter shooter). Tatum has had the hot hand as of late, but any of these 4 could lead Boston in scoring on any given night. That versatility of not knowing who might be the best scorer each evening makes Boston a difficult team to defend,  and Boston themselves are a top 5 defensive team also. The Celtics are close, and if Tatum can make the jump to superstardom they will have all the pieces in place to win a championship.

Tier 6: The Heavy Favorites

#3. Los Angeles Clippers
44-20; 2nd in West
Before this summer the Clippers were a mediocre at best team that made the playoffs as an 8 seed last year. Then the organization signed Kawhi Leonard (a two-time Finals MVP, two-time defensive player of the year, and top 5 player), and Paul George (finished top 3 in MVP voting and defensive player of the year voting last season). The two superstars instantly made the Clippers a championship favorite as both are two-way players that can score many points and also shut down the opposing teams' best scorers. Behind them the Clippers have a good collection of players such as Lou Williams (3-time 6th man of the year award winner), Montrezl Harrell (19 ppg), Patrick Beverly (two-time all NBA defensive team), and Marcus Morris (20 ppg). The Clips are elite both offensively and defensively and seem to be on a collision course with the Lakers for an epic "Battle of LA" to decide the Western Conference Finals.

#2. Milwaukee Bucks
53-12; 1st in East
The Bucks boast the NBA's best record, largely thanks to Giannis Antetokounmpo (we just call him Giannis, no one bothers with the last name), who is on track to win his second consecutive MVP award. The 25 year old is becoming the new face of the NBA. Born in Greece to parents who were immigrants from Nigeria, Giannis and his family grew up in a tiny house where they all slept in the same room with little money since the parents had trouble finding work as immigrants, so Giannis and his brothers would sell inexpensive goods on the streets from a young age such as watches, handbags, and sunglasses to help provide the family with income. Years later, Giannis is an NBA megastar, averaging 30 ppg and 14 rpg and is also one of the league's best defensive players. In a league filled with arrogance, fame, and drama, fans love that Giannis is a humble individual playing for a small market team from an impoverished upbringing proud of his Greek origin. Past Giannis, the Bucks have a second all-star, Khris Middleton, who is an excellent 3 point shooter, and then some good role players like Eric Bledsoe, Brook Lopez, and George Hill. The Bucks for the most part have steam-rolled their Eastern competitors in the regular season but come playoff time teams like the Celtics, Raptors, Heat, and 76ers (if healthy) would present a good challenge to them. The team has not been to the Finals since 1974 but could rewrite history this season. What will ultimately determine whether or not the Bucks can win a championship this year, is whether or not Middleton can be a great enough side kick and whether members of the supporting cast can contribute enough to put Milwuakee over the top and give Giannis the support he needs.

#1. Los Angeles Lakers
49-14; 1st in West
The biggest brand in basketball also happens to be arguably the league's best team. They have the league's best player, LeBron James (26 ppg, 11 apg, 8 rpg) and another top 5 player in Anthony Davis (27 ppg, 10 rpg, elite rim protector.). James has long been the NBA's best player and an inhuman athlete, even at 35 years old. His accolades include 3 championships, 9 Finals appearances (including 8 in a row from 2011-2018), 3 Finals MVPs, 4 regular season MVP's, annual All-Star selections, and is 3rd all-time in scoring in NBA history. His greatness is compared to the likes of Michael Jordan and the late-great Kobe Bryant. Jordan won 6 championships and Kobe won 5 so LeBron is looking to close the gap on those two as he continues to make a case for the greatest of all time. James and Davis are the league's best superstar duo as Davis is a top 5 player as well, and they have a good supporting cast of contributers that includes Kyle Kuzma, Dwight Howard, JR Smith, Danny Green, JaVale McGee, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope who all do their part. The Lakers will have to earn it, they have the likely aforementioned Battle of LA with the Clippers in the Western Finals and then the NBA Finals will either pit LeBron vs Giannis in a battle of the league's rising superstar versus the league's OG, or possibly Lakers vs Celtics which is the oldest rivalry in the NBA. The Lake-Show hasn't won a championship since Kobe helped them win back to back titles in 2010 & 2011, but with LeBron looking more motivated than ever and a roster of stingy veterans supporting him they could rule the league once again.
































































































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